When individual prospect listings come out from the different ranking services, often times we talk about those rankings without putting them into any context. The reality is, different scouts value different things. Some may rank a prospect based on having a higher floor, some may value a higher ceiling, and some may look for the best mix of projectable qualities in an individual player.
It’s rare that an individual team will draft a player in the higher rounds or sign an international player to a larger bonus without a number of different scouts or front office types putting their eyes on a player. When different people all see the same things, it leads to stronger conclusions about the strength or weakness of a player. What I’ve done here is attempt to replicate that with the Cubs’ farm system rankings in order to build a majority opinion on the strengths and weaknesses of the system. Some of the better and more well respected evaluators work for MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN, and all have put out a top 100 prospects list and/or a top ten for the system.
Because Baseball Prospectus and ESPN Insider require paid subscriptions, actual content from their sites is going to be modest. MLB.com, though, does offer their lists and scouting reports for free…and they will have a Cubs Top 20 coming as the season draws nearer.
Cubs In Top 100
7. Javier Baez
9. Kris Bryant
18. Albert Almora
42. C.J. Edwards
49. Jorge Soler
100. Pierce Johnson
The MLB.com Top 100, compiled by Johnathon Mayo and Jim Callis, is definitely the most top heavy ranking of the Cubs’ prospects, with three of the top 20 and five of the top 50. With Callis telling David Kaplan that he expects the Cubs to compete by 2016, he does it on the shoulders of the four hitters at the forefront. He did mention that CJ Edwards and Pierce Johnson were strong pitching prospects, but his praise of the hitters at the top of the list was effusive. That’s going to be a common theme throughout, as the hitters are the toast of the town. That’s a pretty nice problem to have.
Cubs In Top 101
4. Javier Baez
17. Kris Bryant
25. Albert Almora
45. Jorge Soler
81. C.J. Edwards
83. Arismendy Alcantara
91. Pierce Johnson
Top 10 Prospects
SS Javier Baez
3B Kris Bryant
CF Albert Almora
RF Jorge Soler
RHP C.J. Edwards
SS Arismendy Alcantara
RHP Pierce Johnson
With 1-7 being included in BP’s 101, the system looks strong. As Tom Ricketts boasted repeatedly at Cubs Convention, this service does have the Cubs rated as the number two farm system. Looking at the projections for each player, though, tells us how they are valued. Jason Parks lists a “Realistic Role” for Edwards is as a set-up guy and for Johnson as a 4th starter, but says both have the potential to be 3rd starters. In short, the value of the pitching prospects isn’t high upside, it’s in their relatively low downside. For pitching prospects, in my opinion, low downside is as important as high upside. Parks seems to agree to an extent, by putting both players in the top 100 prospects. Like everyone else, he sees All-Star Games and strong careers in the future for the top four prospects.
Cubs In Top 100
7. Javier Baez
15. Kris Bryant
26. Jorge Soler
28. Albert Almora
67. C.J. Edwards
71. Arismendy Alcantara
Top 10 Prospects
SS Javier Baez
3B Kris Bryant
OF Jorge Soler
CF Albert Almora
RHP C.J. Edwards
2B Arismendy Alcantara
RHP Pierce Johnson
3B Jeimer Candelario
RHP Corey Black
RHP Arodys Vizcaino
It is very difficult for me to call a man who puts four prospects in the top 30 and ranked the system fourth (Link for Law’s Insider System Rankings here) in baseball “bear-ish”, so I won’t do it. He is, like the others, high on the hitting prospects at the top of the system, although he does value Soler’s upside while setting aside last season’s injury concerns more than the other services. Seeing Almora as a “solid producer for years” and saying he “won’t end up a superstar” is fine. Almora has always been a case of a player having a high floor with a lower ceiling. Law does give Edwards 2nd starter potential, but predictably, worries about his small frame. Notably, he is the only evaluator discussed here to leave Pierce Johnson out of his top 100. He does, though, place higher value on some pitchers in the system, with Corey Black cracking the top ten, which was a mild surprise to me, and calls LHP Rob Zastryzny the #11 pitcher in the system within the Insider piece. To note, he also says that Jeimer Candelario, who was on the fringes of the top 100 each of the last two years, and last year’s IFA signing, OF Eloy Jimenez both appear to be future top 100 prospects, so the long term health of the system is strong, in addition to the strength it has now.
Take Aways
For me, the biggest take away is that the Cubs have six consensus Top 100 prospects. They have another who makes 2/3 lists. That’s a very strong system by any measure. While the individual rankings vary somewhat, they all put at least three Cubs in the top 30 and four in the top 50. While pitching is a relative weakness in the system, the cupboards are not bare, and it is nice to see that the experts have some agreement with the first piece I posted on this site. The last takeaway is the dynamic nature of the lists. Some prospects rise. Others fall. And some players lose the criteria set by the evaluators to make the list at all. It’s totally cool to get excited about how talented the minor leagues are, but understanding that it is developing and grooming these players that will bring them to their peak potential should win the day.
